RIVN

• RIVN is burning through cash quickly.. around ~1.5B per qtr , capex is going to increase further.. They're adding 2 major changes to the production line and starting a second shift on the floor which will ramp to 100% slowly..
• The unit profit is still negative and isn't expected to go neutral/positive till somewhere in 2024..
• The supply chain is still fucky.. and cash would last them till 2025, optimistically. with 13B in cash, the valuation is propped up by it.. as they burn through it, EV will decrease (think DCF, but inverted, so fair value decreases over time).
• Plus from what i catch from the ER, sale prices are going to go up next year, they have an existing pre-order backlog till 2024, and R2 is pushed out to 2026.. as we move closer to end of 2024, we'll know about unit profitability for the current stuff.
• They still have some SBC related expenses that they're working through.. given how close unit profit and cash reserves are, it's probable they do another round of dilution some time between now and 2024...
• The deal with merc is still up in the air on how it helps their production line
• Given all this plus the expected slowdown in sales in Dec plus macro.. I feel short to mid term is bearish.. unclear about long term.

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This was a quick look so it's possible I might have overlooked some key points...

Thoughts?