I did $300k-$400k in trading volume (swaps) on a single wallet in the lead up to Jupuary 2025 and received no airdrop.
I even did all my swapping for this Jupuary on the same wallet I received the first JUP airdrop on. Trading volume is within the Nov 2 (2023) to Nov. 1 (2024) timeframe. My cousin, who pretty much just copytrades me but with less volume, received 5,000 JUP.