2-3' to fall in NVT next 2 weeks. Mansfield Snow Stake headed for 3.5'+

We are in the midst of our pow cycle. I took the opportunity to check out Cannon MTN for the first time. Most under rated resort in the east? It's looking like I'll be batting .660 by the time this cycle ends. Slide #1 shows winners and losers for the forecast made 9 days ago. Most of my misses were light on snowfall rather than heavy. That's .660 batting avg on a 7-15 day forecast. I'll take it.

So what's next? AN EXTENDED POW CYCLE! Also a mostly new england pow cycle. Sorry mid atlantic your cycle is coming to an end on december 7th. In New England however, winter stays through the first 2 weeks of December. Its not an incredibly snowy pattern except for the northern resorts and parts of quebec. A zonal flow is to be expected but doesn't mean we can't get surprises. A clipper system moves through with some blower pow in the dacks, greens, whites longfellows along with PA and WV. Nothing major but substantial snowfall nonetheless, and extremely dry pow with high snow ratios in the mountains of northern new england. The next major winter storm is on 12/10. This one doesn't look like a mid atlantic storm at the current jucture but it could go either way in new england. The euro has a rain out with snow in Quebec. The GFS has a new england blizzard. I think the euro is wrong and I'll cover that in the long range.

LONG RANGE Slide #2 is kyles model on the indeces. It would suggest the euro could be correct on a rain out. But if you look at the rate of change of the model, there is a window around 12/10, 12/11. Slide #3 is the CPC modeling for the indeces which supports the snowy GFS rendition of this new england storm on slide #4 (-AO, -NAO, +PNA). Slide #5 shows the Southern oscillation which continues to oscillate. Once again, we are in the Neutral enso phase, not la nina. The euro wants to blow up a la nina storm, whereas the GFS wants to blow up a neutral Enso storm. A double barrel low with high pressure to our northeast alongside a backdoor cold front in new england and a trough migrating across the country right behind. If this low develops, as cold as it is leading up to the storm, we will probably see fireworks. I'll update with some snowfall predictions mid week. But for now it's safe to assume something good happens between the 8th and the 12th.

We still have the threat of a holiday thaw. Right now it would appear to be a window between 12/15 and 12/25. The ridging should return to the east with troughing in the west. So shots of warm air should not surprise. But I'm not convinced it's a really meaningful thaw just yet. This warm up has been flickering on and off anywhere between mid december to mid January. It looks like it's settling in however just before christmas. But we return to a cold pattern for the new year with a snowy pattern moving in for the first half of january. For now enjoy the pow in the northeast!

PEACE OUT GIRL SCOUTS!