Bracketology Projection

Latest Bracketology Projection based on Joe Lunardi's latest bracket from this morning. It had been brewing for a couple of weeks now, but Duke has now overtaken Auburn as the projected champion. The detailed analysis spreadsheet is there, just swipe left.

A few of you have alluded to trying to gauge whether a year will be vanilla (All 1 seed Final Four or close, like 2008, 2015, 2019) or "The Wild West" like 2011, 2014, 2023 where no 1 seeds or maybe 1 go to the Final Four. I am working on that and may have an answer on it. I believe I may have some indicators on this, and this year it is looking like a relatively vanilla year like 2019 - at this point in the season. It could all change in 6 weeks. I have updated the model with this new indicator. I know, I know ... I had San Diego St. finishing in the Elite 8 earlier in the week.

The only surprises or upsets were 12 Lipscomb, 13 Northern Colorado, 11 UC Irvine and 11 Texas going to the Round of 32, and 10 Texas Tech over 2 Kentucky to go to the Sweet Sixteen. Interesting games to determine the Final Four were 1) 2 Marquette over 4 Houston and 2) 3 Illinois over 1 Iowa St. in a rematch of last year's game.